IGUA-SA Warns of Pressure on Mozambican Gas With Risk of Supply Disruption in the South African Market
According to Engineering News, the interruption of natural gas supply from Mozambique by Sasol, expected in 2028, will mark the beginning of the so-called “gas cliff”. The situation is expected to worsen with the end, in 2030, of the provisional solution based on methane-rich gas, also supplied by Sasol. This combination of factors threatens to leave thousands of companies without access to a critical energy source.
The document, signed by IGUA-SA’s executive director, Jaco Human, calls for the creation of a National Gas Project Team, similar to the structures established to respond to electricity and logistics crises. The aim would be to ensure a coordinated, multisectoral response to prevent gas shortages and to lay the foundations for a sustainable supply chain through 2042.
In its initial phase, the plan foresees strengthening imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) through infrastructure located in Maputo, Richards Bay, and Coega. However, the long-term strategy involves developing domestic natural gas sources along South Africa’s west and south coasts, where production costs are estimated between 379 and 505 meticais per gigajoule (USD 6 to 8), significantly below LNG prices, currently set between 631 and 694 meticais (USD 10 to 11).
South Africa’s industry — which depends heavily on Mozambican gas — directly employs around 75,000 workers and moves more than 26.4 billion meticais (USD 420 million) annually. The sectors most vulnerable to shortages include mining, petrochemicals, glass, steel, paper, and agribusiness. IGUA-SA warns that without coordinated intervention, jobs will be lost, economic contraction will follow, and severe challenges will arise in the energy transition.
The proposal presented includes a ten-point plan that features, among other measures, the establishment of bilateral agreements with Mozambique and Namibia, the definition of a National Gas Infrastructure Roadmap, the creation of a fiscal guarantee framework for public-private partnerships, and the acceleration of national energy plans, including the Gas Master Plan.
